Confindustria, Government interventions against costly energy are ‘insufficient’. Visco: ‘Depression is unlikely’

Milan – The Confindustria He returns to pressure the government to demand new interventions on the energy front. To tell the truth, the next aid decree that is supposed to light up next week is expected. Meanwhile, the study center in Viale dell’Astronomia is laying out a diagnosis for the moment: “War hampers Europe, especially Italy.” In the April flash economy it is added that “the Italian scenario is getting worse due to higher prices for energy and other raw materials”. “Economic indicators for March – refer to the CSC – confirmed the net weakness of the Italian economy. The conflict in Ukraine amplifies increases in energy and other commodity prices, increases material scarcity and uncertainty. Adding to the effects of contagion, this lowers GDP in the first quarter From 2022 and extends a shadow over the second quarter: the trend in April is at risk and prospects are bleak.”

Pessimism tempered by the words of the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Viscowhich reports that the recession in Italy is “minor”.
Possible, “the conflict in Ukraine” is a very serious conflict, a horrific event, but it is limited and at the moment does not have the global dimension that the financial crisis of 2009 or the pandemic itself had. He also explained that “in the next few months we will continue to rise in gas and oil prices, and they will fluctuate around these high levels and then decline during the second half, and more decisively at the end of the year.”

Just yesterday, the Parliamentary Budget Office calculated that the bill for another three months of war for the Italian economy could soon rise above 45 billion euros. Among the slowdown factors, there is the rapid inflation of expensive energy. As against this, CSC says today, “Public interventions are still not enough“.” In the face of expensive energy – assures the CSC – the government has so far allocated, for the first half of 2022 and without resorting to an additional deficit, about 14 billion euros: 11 to support families and companies (of which 1, 2 for large companies only in the first quarter) and 3 for structural interventions #1 in gas, renewable energy, and support for automotive and microprocessor supply chains,” notes the flash economy.

Among the elements of uncertainty about the future, there are also interest rates. “While the European Central Bank It keeps interest rates steady, and long-term market prices in the eurozone are already rising rapidly “and”Long-term interest rate hikes are a problem for Italy (and other countries) “because they will “gradually increase interest spending, with new problems emerging at higher rates”, says the CSC. Moreover, only yesterday Lagarde identified an increase in rates as “highly likely” already this year. Italy will have less room in the budget to implement a new expansionary fiscal maneuver – CSC continues – given the high debt, policies must also be prudent to avoid further jumps in the spread. Moreover, if the rise in BTP is transferred to the cost of bank deposits and also to an increase in the cost of credit, this will determine a further increase in the costs of companies and households, which are already affected by the cost of energy. This would penalize both investment and private consumption, burdening Italy’s GDP.”

Finally, a very discouraging sign also comes toexport, which is “weak to expect”. However, “pre-conflict growth: +5.8% in December and February over the previous three months, well above pre-Covid levels. Much of the increase – as Service Canada explains – is due to higher prices in overseas markets (+2.8%). Sales in key markets, the EU and other non-EU countries, and manufacturing sectors (but cars are still weak). However, the first effects of the war in Ukraine are already visible in foreign manufacturing orders. In March. In March. In addition However, the dynamics of global trade, which was already flat at the beginning of the year due to the decline in trade in Asia and the increase in Europe, has negative prospects, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index of global foreign manufacturing orders, which decreased in March (48.2 from 51)”.

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