What will happen in Italy after Russia banned gas in Poland, Bulgaria and Lithuania

Gianni Silvestrini, a researcher and expert on renewable energy, as well as the scientific director of the Kyoto Club, explains to Fanpage.it what would happen if Russian gas stopped in Italy.

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With the complete blockade of Russian gas in Italy, consumption must be rationed. The message about stopping gas supplies to Poland, Lithuania and Bulgaria should be taken seriously“To say this, to Fanpage.it microphones, Gianni Silvestrini, researcher and expert on renewable energy, as well as the scientific director of the Kyoto Club. Yesterday, Russia, through its company Gazprom, blocked gas supplies to those three European countries, which refused to pay in rubles, as stipulated On it in a decree signed by Putin himself, this move has created chaos on the Old Continent, with the fear that it may spread to other countries, including ours.

Gazprom cut gas supplies to Poland, Lithuania and Bulgaria. Can you do that also with Italy?

I think this was a political signal from Gazprom and Russia, in the sense of saying that the countries most committed to helping Ukraine and its refugees are being punished. I’m thinking of Poland in particular, even if these and two other countries have already adopted policies of little or no dependence on Russian gas. Referring to all of Europe, from the series: It can happen to you, too. The question is: Will they go ahead and touch countries like Italy or Germany? I do not think that this will happen immediately, since Moscow will have much less income at the time of financial hardship. But Putin is unpredictable and the situation is getting more and more dangerous, so the message must be taken seriously. This also applies, above all, to our country.

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But if there is an immediate Russian gas embargo on Italy, what are the consequences?

If there is a complete Russian gas blockade in the coming weeks, we will almost certainly not be able to increase the strategic stocks in time to withstand beyond October/November. At this point, we should think about rationing consumption. The alert won’t be for the summer, says Arrera, but for the upcoming fall and winter. If we have to, we must resort to the Italian ability to resort to all solutions.

However, many members of the government, starting with Minister Singolani, are easing up and talking about stockpiling that will be enough to cover the country’s needs.

Honestly, I trust more than what Arera says. Fortunately, we have a quantity of gas that comes from sources other than Russia, so we will not stay at zero, but the Russian share is the largest.

So what should the executive branch do?

And it must continue the path it began in the search for new gas supplies, and accelerate it. Although it must be said that with the exception of Algeria, the results will not come immediately. Then accelerate regasification to deal with LNG, but above all we need to make an effort on the renewable front. I don’t really understand the lack of interest in the contribution they can make. Industrialists have been repeating for some time that they can install plants to produce 60,000 megawatts of power in three years, versus an average of 1,000 megawatts per year so far: people say they have the sites and money, for example, to build non-expendable industrial warehouses, but licenses aren’t available in All regions. Elettricità Futura, the main association of the Italian electrician, put forward an even more ambitious proposal, proposing concrete solutions: to reach 60 gigawatts of renewables within three years, with 20 gigawatts of solar and wind power annually. We need large-scale plants and distributed renewable sources. In this way we can reduce gas imports from Russia by about half, given that 50% of the consumption of power plants goes to gas, and if we intervene on this front, we will be significantly and immediately freed from Moscow.

So focusing on renewables doesn’t just lead to long-term effects?

Accelerating the ecological transition produces immediate results: it takes just over a month to build a low-consumption industrial warehouse. Then I read from you from the Fanpage about the dozens of biogas and biomethane plants that have been shut down by the bureaucracy: That front is central to Italian energy policy, but even large renewable-energy plants are more urgent and less expensive. It is done without the need for incentives. The share of the use of renewable energy sources is 38% and the goal is to reach 72%: recently there have been important simplification interventions for the installation of solar panels, for example, but there is still a lot to do.

Regardless of the need for rationing, this summer it is still recommended to use air conditioners less or set higher temperatures, as it will be mandatory in public buildings?

I think Draghi was right when he asked Italians and politicians if they would prefer peace in Ukraine to heavy use of air conditioning and heating. This is wise advice. We use fans more this summer than air conditioners: they provide comfort and allow us to reduce consumption.

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