Bitcoin, halfway to the next halving

The halving occurs exactly every 210,000 blocks that are mined and added to the Bitcoin blockchain.

The fourth halving of Bitcoin is on the horizon

btc blockchain halving
105,000 blocks missing for the fourth halving of the Bitcoin blockchain

The last block 630,000 mined occurred on May 11, 2020, and the next block will take place at Block 840,000.

We are currently around block 735,000, which is about 105,000 from the next half. This means that we are roughly halfway between the halves of 2020 and the halving of 2024.

At the current rate, the fourth halving should occur in the early days of May 2024, but it is also likely to happen in April, again in the same year. So they are missing More or less than two years.

Generally An average of one block is extracted every 10 minutes, also because the Bitcoin protocol has been designed to maintain this pace more or less, even if the block time is currently 9 and a half minutes. For this reason, it is likely that the next halving will not occur in May, as current estimates suggest, but in April.

On all the past three occasions the halving has happened, it has been Bitcoin price Next year took off.

half date

The first halving occurred in late November 2012, and in 2013 the largest speculative bubble was launched on the price of Bitcoin, which jumped from $13 to $1,150 in just one year, with Over 8,700% profit in less than twelve months.

The second occurred in mid-July 2016, and in 2017 there was the second large speculative bubble with a price hike in 12 months. From $900 to nearly $20,000reporting an increase of more than 2,000% in just one year.

the third On May 11, 2020, and in 2021, the price jumped from less than $20,000 to nearly $70,000, an increase of 250% and without a major real speculative bubble.

This trend could continue in 2025 as next half It will be between April and May of 2024, but as you can see from the previous data it is Descending direction.

That is, every year after the three tremors that have already occurred, the price has risen less and less, even with no big speculative bubble during the last time.

It must be said that this could be due precisely to Bitcoin protocolespecially its monetary policy.

In fact, halving is the only measure of Bitcoin monetary policy, as it cuts the creation of new Bitcoins in half. Initially, 50 new BTC were generated per block, which was given as a reward to the miner who managed to mine it, and this continued until the first halving. After that, the premium dropped to 25 BTC per block, then dropped to 12.5 after the second halving, and It is now at 6.25 BTC.

Bitcoin monetary policy

This means that the first halving suddenly reduced the annual inflation of the Bitcoin money supply from 50% to 8%, generating real thunder. shock progress.

The second lowered it from 8% to about 3.5%, so it was still a huge drop.

It should also be said that a large part of the Bitcoin money supply that existed at that time was in fact blocked and unusable, so real inflation was higher than theoretical inflation.

And the third half, which is 2020, only cut it from 3.5% to about 1.7%, so it’s easy to imagine it would have had a slight impact on the supply shock. However, there was such a shock, but not so much that it could lead to a speculative bubble.

next half It will raise the annual inflation rate to 0.8%, or with an unnoticeable decrease compared to the previous 1.7%. So it is safe to expect a Further easing of the above trend.

It must also be said that the impact of the next halving on the price of Bitcoin may not occur even in 2025, but perhaps as early as 2024, given that it will have a full seven months to become effective before the end of the year.

In the meantime, the price may be affected a bit, because two years of waiting is still a long time, and because in all cases before the next two years of the bubble it was not good for the price of Bitcoin.


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